May 11, 2012
Silver Price Forecast : Silver Market Update
Here are a few patterns that might explain the current state of the silver price, as well as, provide the possible way forward.
Below is a graphic which compares the current pattern on silver (from about the beginning of 2011 to present) to a 2007 pattern:
On both charts, I have suggested how the patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6 (and alternatively from a to f). Based on this comparison, it appears that the silver price is searching for that point 6 (or point f). Previously, about more than 6 weeks ago (after the middle of March), I thought that point 6 (or point f) was already in, or close to being in.
This was my assumption, based on timing: On the 2007 pattern, you can see that from point d to point f was about 10 days, and that this was the same for point f to point h on the same pattern. When applying this to the current pattern, it was expected that point h would be in about 14 weeks after point f (about middle to end March) – similar to the 14 weeks from point 2 to point 4.
This was a reasonable expectation since the market often behaves in such a manner. However, it was the wrong expectation. It appears that the market has extended that cycle (which is not unusual); however, it appears that the bullish expectation is still very much justified. We would need a turnaround very soon though, to continue the mega bullish expectation. If we do not get the turnaround very soon, then price could go even lower than $26 (unlikely).
In my latest gold update, explained why I think this week might bring the bottom for gold. My analysis for silver also suggests that we could see a bottom for silver this week (for the latest next week).
I believe that it is very likely that we will get that massive rally soon.
“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”