A Massive Spike In The Price of Silver Is Imminent

A Massive Spike In The Price of Silver Is Imminent

Gold and silver are very close to entering the mania phase of this bull market. In order for gold and silver to go into the mania phase, value has to be diverted from somewhere, and that “somewhere” is most likely stocks. Since 2000, there has been a correction in stock values, in real terms; however, nominally, stocks are still significantly high (close to its all-time highs).

I expect that significant value will soon be diverted from the general stock market, to silver and gold, causing prices to rally significantly, until these metals also become overvalued.

This is exactly what happened in 2007/2008. Below is a graphic (charts from barchart.com) that illustrates how this happened in 2007/2008:

The top chart is for the S&P 500 and the bottom is for silver. I have drawn a yellow line, at the point where the S&P 500 peaked. It is only after the peak in the S&P 500 that silver broke out, and eventually rallied significantly (while the S&P 500 was crashing). From a “fractal” point of view, we are currently in a similar position, with stocks getting ready to peak.

Silver Fractal Analysis

Silver has made its way out of the giant flag; however, it fell back again, lower than the upper boundary of the flag, as shown in the following chart:

Previously, I have stated that price will eventually break out of the flag and go on to make much higher highs. Below, is some evidence to support this view:

The top chart is for gold and the bottom one is for silver. Gold and silver made similar patterns before and after reaching their respective 1980 highs. From the charts, you can see there is a similarity in how gold and silver approached their 1980 high. Both made a triangle-type pattern (green lines) just before it reached the 1980 all-time high. When it came out of that triangle pattern, it rallied strongly to the 1980 high, which started the formation of a flag-type pattern (yellow lines).

Gold passed its 1980 all-time high during 2008, while silver is yet to do so. By looking at the pattern of how gold passed its 1980 high, we can predict how silver might do it as well. If silver continues to follow the pattern that gold formed, then we can expect a massive spike towards the $50 and beyond, very soon. Read my previous article for more about this comparison.

For more of this kind of analysis, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report , or subscribe to my premium service .




“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved.”

Silver Price Forecast Video : Silver Is The ideal Asset For A Monetary Collapse

Silver Price Forecast: Silver During A Monetary Collapse

Please subscribe to my premium or free service (subscribe on the side bar by entering email address) for regular updates. For more detailed silver analysis you can purchase my Silver Fractal Analysis Report.

Warm regards and God bless,




Silver Price Forecast: Why Silver For A Monetary Collapse? Part 1

Silver Price Forecast:

We are at the edge of a major economic crisis. Our monetary system is the underlying cause of this major crisis. The massive debt bubble created by our monetary system is about to burst. The demonetization of gold and silver, has over the years diverted value from these metals, to all paper assets (such as bonds) linked to the debt-based monetary system.

The process of the devaluation of gold and silver, started by the demonetization of gold and silver, is about to reverse at a greater speed than ever before. This is similar to what happened during the late 70s, when the gold and silver price increased significantly. However, what happened in the 70’s was just a prelude to this coming rally. The 70’s was the end of a cycle, this is likely the end of a major cycle; an end of an era of the debt-based monetary system (dishonest money).

This era of dishonest money, has filled the economic world with many promises that will never be fulfilled. There will be a massive flight out of paper promises, into the ideal safe haven assets that would offer protection.

The type of assets that people will flee to depends on the extent to which the assets offer protection against the specific crisis. For example, if people are extremely thirsty, then most would likely go for water, instead of milk or soft drinks. They would therefore rank water higher than soft drinks or milk. The reason that they would go for water is due to its superior properties, for countering the thirst crisis.

In a similar manner, people will run to the assets that have the ideal properties to counter risks and issues brought about by this economic crisis. Most people in the  hard-money camp will agree that gold is the asset that people will flee to in this economic crisis, but for some reason, there  are those (sometimes respected analysts) that believe that silver is not that safe-haven asset.

I believe that people will (and are) running to gold, not because gold was ordained by some divine providence or something, but: because it has those specific properties to offer protection against the crisis – properties given by God. It follows naturally that whatever assets have similar properties, will be similarly in big demand, as a safe- haven.

What are the properties of gold that offers so much protection against this crisis?

Simplified, it is important to understand that the true nature of this crisis is monetary; therefore, assets that possess monetary properties will be the premier assets. The issue here is not whether gold, silver or other assets are money or not. It is whether they have monetary properties, because that is what people will be after.

Good money should be effective as a store of value, a medium of exchange as well as a unit of account. In order for money to be effective in the above it has to have the following properties:

  • divisible – should be divisible in smaller units
  • portable – able to carry it around therefore a high value should be able to be contained in a small space and weight
  • homogenous – one unit should be the same as any another unit
  • durable – should not be able to be easily destroyed or eroded
  • valuable – should have intrinsic value, normally because it is desirable. Should not be able to be created or discovered without reasonable effort.  normally a commodity itself.

recommended: similarities between current crisis and great depression

Gold has all the above properties. It is almost a perfect fit. How about silver? Is it not also a perfect fit?  In fact, silver is a perfect fit as much as gold is; there is not much to choose between the two. Gold and silver are the two assets that best fit the above properties; therefore, both will be the assets in most demand. If someone tries to convince otherwise (that silver will not offer protection like gold), he has to show how silver does not fit the properties that will offer protection against this crisis (the above listed properties).

Personally, I prefer silver over gold. Mainly because: silver offers better value as a result of it being one of the most undervalued assets today, it is less likely to be confiscated (at least for a while), it is more accessible for now due to its lower price. However, I recommend both.

Chart Analysis

Below, I have put together two great long-term charts. The top one, is from minefund.com, and features the gold-silver ratio from 1791 to present. The bottom chart, is from sharelynx.com, and features the Dow-gold ratio from 1800 to present.

I have lined-up the two charts. I will only point out a few things here. The first thing is the double-top in the gold-silver ratio, and the recent failed attempt (at the 80 level) to test the highs. This makes a test of the all-time highs very unlikely and a test of 16 (the bottom between the two tops) very likely.

I have drawn a vertical blue line, approximately where silver was demonetized (1870s). Notice how the gold-silver ratio started rising, becoming very volatile with three massive peaks eventually forming.  The Dow/gold ratio also made three massive peaks after the blue line.

recommended: why a mega gold stocks rally is imminent

The Dow/gold ratio (when high) is in some way, a proxy for the extent to which value is diverted from real money to paper assets. The 80 years before the blue line, silver and gold was generally still money. The gold-silver ratio was reasonably stable and lower than 20, and the Dow-gold ratio was at lower levels.

After the blue line, the gold–silver ratio rises significantly, and becomes very volatile. The Dow-gold ratio also rises significantly, showing the extent to which value is being diverted from real money (silver) to paper assets. After, gold is demonetized (by the 30s), the Dow/gold ratio rises even more, making higher peaks, and showing the extent to which value is being diverted from both gold and silver, to paper assets.

This trend has been reversing since about 1999, and it is likely that the speed of the reversal will soon intensify. Notice how the Dow-gold ratio tested the 1 level in 1980. That level is incidentally the key- level at which it broke out of during the 1870s, which is exactly when silver was demonetized. At the same time, in 1980, the gold-silver ratio also made a significant low of about 16. Both ratios were attempting to go back to pre-1870s levels. Was it a co-incidence that both ratios tested the 1870 levels?

After the double-top, it is almost certain that the gold-silver ratio will go back to the 16 level, and even look to touch an extreme level, lower at possibly 7. Technically, based on the extreme highs of the two peaks of the double-top, a ratio of 1:1 is not impossible.

Based on the true fundamentals, it is reasonable to expect things to settle at pre-1870’s levels – eventually. That is, that gold and silver will be used as money, with the gold-silver ratio at between a possible 10 and 16.

For more detailed silver analysis and silver price forecast, I have prepared a Silver Fractal Analysis Report. For more details, see  here.

Subscribe to this blog or to my Youtube channel: FractalSigns for regular gold and silver commentary and updates.

You might also like the following:



Warm regards and God bless,


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Price Forecast: Silver $140 At Least ?

I am trying out the Youtube medium for publishing updates on gold and silver. I have done the following video on silver. Please send to those who might be interested in silver, but, do not often read financial sites?

Silver Price  Forecast 2012:



Silver Price Forecast – Silver Is Ready, Are You?

Silver Price Forecast:

In my previous silver update, I presented the following chart, which indicated that silver was at a major crossroads:

I wrote the following: “The current pattern on the silver chart is in fact a highly bullish pattern. It is consistent with that which forms right before price goes parabolic. However, this type of pattern is also similar to that which forms just before we have a severe decline. That, I believe, is the reason why opinion is always divided before one sees a huge rise in price.”

Based on my Fractal analysis, I made the case for silver rising, therefore, choosing the “green path”. It appears that silver has now confirmed its intention to follow that green path. Below, is the updated chart:

On the chart, I have highlighted a possible flag, which could have a target in the $70 area, should it break out in the $40 dollar area.

I said before that the current pattern on the silver chart is an extremely bullish pattern. It is no ordinary flag. It is a pattern that often appears before a good goes parabolic. Provided that the silver price can breach the relevant resistance over the next couple of weeks, it will increase dramatically over the next couple of months.

This pattern on the silver chart has me convinced that silver will rise even faster than a lot of silver bulls are expecting. Let me give you an example of what is likely to come next, after this pattern. Below, is a comparison of the current pattern on the silver chart, and a similar pattern that was on the gold chart in 2007:

The gold chart is the top one. I have marked similar points (1 to 5), on both charts, to illustrate how the patterns are similar. Note, that the silver pattern is a much larger pattern (time-wise). I have also indicated where I think we are currently, on the silver chart, compared to the gold chart.

It is important to understand that these patterns cannot be randomly compared. One has to determine whether the context in which they exist, are similar. I deal with this in more detail, in my special Fractal Analysis reports. Also, most importantly, the fundamentals should also tell the same story, within context.

So, what happened next on the gold chart, and therefore, by extrapolation, what is likely to happen next on the silver chart? Below, is the gold chart, illustrating what happened after the formation of the pattern.

The gold price rose significantly over the following couple of months, making all-time highs.

If you measure the price distance between the low, and point 2, you will find that the gold price went three times that distance, higher than point 2. If silver emulates that, it should go to $140 (30*3 + 50) as a minimum. Due to the nature of silver, it is likely to better gold’s performance.

In any case, the point is not to calculate a target here, but to show you how potentially bullish the pattern on the silver chart is. If you would like to get more of this type of analysis for gold, silver and gold & silver mining stocks, you can subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently finished a Gold Mining Report that covers the XAU, HUI and the GDX as well as a long-term Gold Fractal Report. For more details see my website.

Warm regards and God bless,



Visit my Youtube Channel for my video updates on gold and silver


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Update

Today, I am making my premium silver update available to all my subscribers. I trust that you will find it useful, and will consider to subscribe to my premium service. It is only $10 per update, and no long-term commitment.

The update follows:

Silver Update

by Hubert Moolman

14 October 2011

In a previous update on silver, I illustrated the high correlation between how gold and silver trades. Importantly, how they trade similar, at similar milestones, despite the fact that those milestones might be reached at different times.

The similar milestone that is relevant for silver’s current and immediate future is of course the 1980 high. Gold made a triangle-type pattern just before it reached the 1980 all-time high. When it came out of that triangle pattern, it rallied strongly to the 1980 high, which started the formation of a flag-type pattern. From the flag pattern, price shot upward to the $1000 level (pass the 1980 high).

Silver is still following the pattern of gold, around its 1980 high, with the exception that, its down-side action is “deeper” than that of gold. The depth (its fall to $26) of the pattern that started forming since it reached the 1980 high again, is deeper ($30 was the deepest that I expected) than what I had anticipated, based on gold’s pattern. However, this appears to have been just a flash crash (provided we do not go there again).

Below is the silver chart:

On the chart I have highlighted the 1980 all-time high. You will see the big triangle type pattern just like one that formed on the gold chart (refer to the 15 June silver update). Out of the triangle it rallied strongly to the 1980 high (just like gold did). After reaching the 1980 high, it fell back, and appears to be forming the flag-type of pattern just like gold did.

The current pattern on the silver chart is in fact a highly bullish pattern. It is consistent with that which forms right before price goes parabolic. However, this type of pattern is also similar to that which forms just before we have a severe decline. That, I believe, is the reason why opinion is always divided before one sees a huge rise in price. This is illustrated below, on the silver chart:

The chart is self-explanatory. As you can see, we are at a major crossroads. We will either have a massive rise in price, or a major fall. In order to be able to make the right decision, we have to look at two important things.

  1. Context – Are the context in which the two patterns exist similar? Let us see. This is a very difficult one, far difficult than the similar one I was faced with when gold was in a similar position in July 2010. The top that was formed at point 1 in 2008 was a major top. Silver had been rallying for more than 5 years until then. Is the top at point 1 in 2011 a major top? I cannot say for sure. It could be, however, it came about 8 months after a huge (almost 30 month) deep consolidation. The first top came about 6.5 months after an almost 15 month consolidation. Given that the length of rallies are often relative to the size of the consolidation, one would expect a major top to only arrive much later than the top in 2011. At least another 5 months later, based on the pattern of the 2008 top. The 2008 top came at a time when there was a big aversion to risk. The current conditions are similar. However, there is case to be made for the fact that precious metals could now move contrary to the general market (as gold has mostly done since July 2011) during this risk-aversion episode, because it is the monetary system that is now at question. This could especially be true due to the crisis now being more about sovereign debt compared to 2008. I will stop here regarding context, but just conclude and say that I am biased towards believing (because of this and all previous analysis) that the context of this 2011 top is different to that of 2008, and suggests that the pattern will follow the green path instead of the red. We still have to look at confirmation standards before making a final decision.
  1. Confirmation standards – Based on the look of the two patterns it appears that the $33.55 and the recent low of $26 dollar are the two key levels. A break above the $33.55 level might suggest that the pattern is following the upward parabolic path, whereas a fall below the $26 level suggests we will follow the red path and have a dreadful fall. If we break above the $33.55 level, which I believe we will, we still have to break out of the flag indicated in the first chart. It also eventually has to go through the yellow line indicated on the first chart.


We are at a crossroads, and have to be watchful. Despite the fact that all my analysis suggests that silver should go higher, much higher, we still have to be watchful and pay close attention to the confirmation standards. Key resistance levels could be $40, the yellow line in the first chart and then $55 dollars. Interim targets could be $70 and then $90.

I have prepared a report: Gold Mining Special Report, which highlights the ideal conditions for gold stocks to rally. The report also covers Fractal Analysis of the HUI, XAU and GDX with usable targets for these indices. This is an extremely useful report that should help the reader to benefit from the coming gold stocks rally. For more information on the report see this article. The report is $50 ($30 for subscribers of my premium service), and I believe it will prove to be worth every dollar.

Warm regards and God Bless,




P.S. Feel free to forward

Silver At A Major Crossroads

For the commentary on this chart, as well as to find out which way the silver price is likely to go, subscribe to my premium service.

Warm regards


Silver and Gold, Different Steps But Same Dance

It is well established that there is a high correlation between how the price of gold and silver trades. Thanks to this relationship between gold and silver, one is able to use historical trading data of the one good, in order to project what may happen to the price of the other.

Awhile back, I wrote about this in my newsletter:

Do not listen to those who call silver a bubble! It is very likely that, believing them, you will miss out on the greatest silver rally in recent times. Now, I cannot tell you for sure that silver or gold is going to rally from here – nobody can. What I do tell you is that all the signs that I look at are indicating that silver and gold will rally significantly from around this area.

Silver compared to gold

Let’s compare silver’s attack of its 1980 all-time high to that of gold. I believe this to be a justified comparison due to the fact that silver and gold’s prices have such a high correlation; but despite that they have a high correlation, they sometimes reach similar milestones at different times. Let me explain by way of the following chart:

Chart generated at commoditycharts.com

The green is silver and the black is gold. I have marked a similar peak for silver and gold as 1 and another as 2. Notice how at one time gold and silver pass their similar peaks at the same time, and at another time they pass it separately. But even on the occasion that they passed their peaks at different times, the manner in which the peaks were passed were still very similar.

I have also indicated where gold bottomed but silver did not. Silver instead bottomed at about 1993. Again, despite the fact that silver and gold bottomed at different times, their manner or pattern of bottoming was still very similar.

So, there is not just a similarity in how gold and silver trade at the same time period, but also how they trade at similar milestones, despite the fact that those milestones are sometimes reached at different times. This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone. In this case (milestone of reaching the 1980 peak), gold is undoubtedly the leading indicator, so it could help us to project what silver might do around this milestone.

I have previously made my view clear regarding where I think silver is in this bull market. I have noted that silver has formed a cup — in a similar manner as gold did — when it reached the $50 mark. I consider the pullback to the $32 area (about 1/3 retracement of depth of cup) as normal; therefore, I consider the probability of silver going lower than the $32 level as highly unlikely.

Let us see if gold’s behaviour, when reaching its (relative) 1980 high in 2007, can help us to predict what silver will do going forward.

In the chart above, you can see that gold made a triangle-type pattern just before it reached the 1980 all-time high. When it came out of that triangle pattern, it rallied strongly to the 1980 high, which started the formation of a flag-type pattern. From the flag pattern, price shot upward to the $1000 level. It is also worthy to note that point 4 of that flag pattern represents about the halfway point from point 3 to the eventual top ($1000).

Above, you can see that silver also made a big triangle-type pattern before it reached the 1980 peak. When it came out of the triangle, it rallied very strongly to the 1980 peak. At the peak it fell down to the $32 area. Is it currently forming a flag or similar pattern, just like gold did? I certainly believe so. I believe if price goes through the $42 level, it will confirm that silver is going to go back to $50 and soon blast through it, just like gold did through its 1980 peak. A fall below point 5, and all bets are off. However, I believe this possibility to be unlikely.

If we assume that silver does go through the $50 level, what target can we expect? If we use gold’s performance to establish a target for silver, it would appear that $80 would be a minimum. I think it will be much more.”

Currently, silver appears to be at the end of a flag-type pattern, just like gold’s at the end of 2007 (see above); so, it appears the correlation as explained above is still on track. Silver is about to take the lead in this precious metals bull market.

For  more detailed analysis on silver, see my Silver Fractal Analysis Report.

Warm regards and God Bless,


Visit my Youtube Channel for my video updates on gold and silver

Turning Point By Hubert Moolman

I received an email from a good friend of mine, today. His comment, per the email, is in response to a prediction by Gann Global Financial, that 12 May 2011, was the 60-year anniversary of the commodity top, and that we might be at a turning point of what will be a 1 ½ year decline in overall commodities.

Below, is his email comment:


I don’t see how a failing dollar can allow for this prediction,

but it sure as hell seems like the markets are expecting it.


I think his comment aptly summarises the peculiarity of the situation we find ourselves in, in today’s markets.

My reply (with additional comments added for this publication) is below:

Very, interesting. I agree we are at a big long-term turning point. I also agree that commodities have put in a long term high, but a high measured in what? Measured in dollar fiat or gold real money. My view is that commodities will decline significantly as measured in gold. Silver is more difficult, since it is part money and part classic commodity. However, the time we are going in now, should make its commodity role insignificant, and it will behave just like money, and follow gold. So, I would say that silver might have peaked in pure commodity terms, but as a currency it will peak when gold does.

So, commodities might have peaked (in real terms), but that means real money, is only just beginning its parabolic move. Fundamentally, gold and silver are real money and not pure commodities. We are in a time, where things will be exposed for what they really are. Fiat money and its related debt instruments will be exposed as worthless pieces of paper, whereas gold and silver will be exposed as the best value preservers.

Paper assets and other debt driven assets including stocks, have also peaked, as far back as 1999, and might soon start its panic drop, taking it to its lows. I think the K-wave analysts are right , when saying that we are in the Winter part of the K-wave. I believe this decline will last until at least 2020. I think so, due to a fractal calculation I did for gold.

The problem with establishing targets for the lows in commodities and stocks, is the fact that we are dealing with fiat money, which is an inconsistent measure. The 1965 dollar is, for example, is a completely different dollar to the current one. So the Dow, for example, should technically drop to $1000, but one is inclined to think that it might be impossible in terms of the current worthless dollar. I expect a huge drop in the Dow over the next couple of years, but whether it will be to $6000 or to $1000 remains to be seen. I believe both are possibilities. Remember, I think, the Dollar is closer to a long-term bottom, than a top, when measured against other currencies. Below is a chart (compliments of Yahoo Finance) I did for the Dow. I have indicated how two patterns (fractals) could be similar. The Dow might be searching for that point 5, before it could make a huge decline over the next 18 months or so. That point 5 might still be at 13100 or even at the all time high or higher, but we just have to wait and see. I have also indicated another possibility for the Dow, which suggest we might have a smaller correction (to about 9 -10 K), before we get to point 5 and the big correction.


In my opinion, gold and silver is looking extremely bullish at this point. Below is a gold chart which indicates a glimpse of my fractal work:

Gold should soon attack the upper boundary of the channel indicated. That means it should pass      $1600 very soon.  Based on the fractal work, it should eventually (after much volatility) go through the upper channel, and then really take-off from there.

Silver has just recently signaled and confirmed its intention to go to $100 and beyond over the next couple of years. By just about reaching the $50 dollar area, it completed a giant cup in similar manner to gold, when it touched its 1980 high. It is very normal to have a retraction after the cup is formed. It is normal for these retractions to retract about a third of the cup’s depth. For silver this can be anywhere close to that $30 to $34 dollar area, which means that should the cup be valid, the bottom for silver could be in. If not, it should not be much lower.

Warm regards and God bless–


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Please visit my blog and website for more of my work, as well as my free and premium service.


You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Gold Update

Below is my 16 March 2011 gold update, to give you an idea of my premium subscriber service. My gold updates are $10 per update.

If you are interested or would like to know more, you can contact me via email. I have just issued an update on gold and silver, today.

Warm regards



Gold Update

16 March 2011

I trust that you are all well?

This is just a quick update on the gold market. The gold price has risen nicely since my last update.  Price movement has been consistent with the fractal predictions as per the 27 January 2011 update.

The purpose of this update is to highlight a possible interim bottom, as well as to forecast what is expected over the next +/- 30 trading days.

See the chart below:

The chart is really self-explanatory. The chart features a follow-up of the fractal presented in the 27 Jan 2011 update. I have marked points a, b and c to show the similarity of the two fractals. Also notice that point c on the first fractal was on day 33, from the bottom (at point b). It is interesting that the suggested point c on the second fractal is also on day 33. This is why I feel so strong that yesterday (day 33) was probably the bottom. If it goes lower, it should not be much lower, as well as only be a quick drop.

I expect gold to really start rallying tomorrow, and  should be at or close to the $1600 level, by at least the next 30 trading days. I also expect the gold miners to outperform bullion.

May God bless you.

Thanks and warm regards,


Rand Gold Price vs JSE Gold Index by Hubert Moolman

Below is a chart that compares the Rand gold price to the JSE miners (JSE Gold Index):

The blue(ish) chart is the Rand gold price and the black one is the JSE Gold Index. I have indicated similar “fractal” positions, which indicate that we are at a point in time where both charts should rise significantly. The other important point to note is the fact that the JSE Gold Index should catch-up with the Rand gold price over the next 18 months or so, just like it did from late 2001 to middle 2002.

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman



JSE Gold miners are almost in the mania zone. Soon prices will rise faster than almost anything else. See my fractal analysis below:

Warm regards


Gold/Platinum Ratio And Economic Weakness… by Hubert Moolman

Most people are mainly concerned with what is going on right now and are less concerned with what happened yesterday, last week or last year. The further in the past an event or development, the less are we concerned about (or aware of) it, and the less is our understanding of it. This appears to be our nature, and it causes many to miss important “big picture” developments.

Here, I would like to discuss one such development and at the same time highlight the outlook for economic conditions over the next few years.

Platinum has been a star performer since the beginning of this century. From about the year 2000 to 2008 it went from just under $400 to a high of $2200. That is an incredible rally, and possibly unrivaled during that period by any other metal or investment class. What is discussed here for platinum holds true for many other assets, even fiat money, but in different aspects, and to various degrees.

Since about the turn of the century, platinum has become the prestige metal. Even credit card companies got into the act by replacing gold cards with platinum cards as their premier credit cards. This, together with platinum’s subsequent rise, ensured that the world became almost platinum crazy.

Even here in South Africa, where we have such an exciting gold history, it became evident that platinum was considered the “new” gold. It appeared that gold took the backseat and platinum enjoyed a new elevated status.

A lot of this fascination with platinum was due to it again becoming more valuable than gold. This platinum mania was indeed justified due to its stellar price performance, especially versus gold. However, it is this very fascination and mania that prevents many from seeing what has been developing over the last 40 years or more, and is now about to conclude (over the remainder of gold’s bull market). Many will be surprised at the impressive gold miner rallies, straight ahead, which will come despite weak general markets.

To understand this development, it is important to understand what the outlook is for the world economy over the next decade. I refer you to my view of the world economy for the next several years.

It is even more important to understand the underlying fundamental cause of this development, since most other factors, like the state of the world economy, are merely symptoms of the “wrong.” This and other articles on my website should help you understand the underlying cause of most of our economic problems.

For most of the last century we have had a corrupt monetary system. This corrupt debt-based monetary system has been suppressing the price of gold for at least the last 80 years. Fiat money and fractional reserve banking are main features of this system, which is the chief underlying cause of most of our economic problems.

This system is now in its 11th hour, and so are all those trends that have come about due to its existence. One such trend is: platinum consistently getting more valuable than gold. There are many more, such as gold and gold mining shares as a percentage of global assets decreasing significantly since at least 1981, having plummeted from 26% of global (investment) assets in 1981 to just 0.8% in 2009, according to Sprott Asset Management.

It is important to note that there will always be such trends, such as increase or decrease between gold and other asset classes; however, under a proper monetary system they will not be as out of balance to the extreme that they are under a debt-based monetary system.

Below is a long-term gold/platinum ratio chart.


chart comes from sharelynx.com

During the gold bull market of the 1970s, it is clear that this ratio was in a significant uptrend. It went from about 0.2 to 1.4 over a 12 year period. That is a seven-fold increase. I have said it before, the same conditions that propelled gold and other commodities higher during the 70s are present now.

These factors are pushing gold higher now and will continue to do so for many years to come. I certainly expect the gold/platinum ratio to trend higher, just as it did in the 70s. As you can see on the chart, the trend for this ratio has begun moving higher in 2008, and like it did in the 70s, it will accelerate as we move along in this bull market.

The great debt bubble of the last century peaked in 1999, when the Dow/gold ratio peaked. This was the tipping point, which signaled the end of the prosperity that was built by this debt. This was soon confirmed, when gold bottomed, and started an uptrend that continues to accelerate. Likewise, in the middle of the 60s, the Dow/gold ratio peaked, whereafter the link of the dollar to gold was removed and gold started its upward march in the 70s.

We are on a downward economic activity trend, and this should accelerate and continue until debt levels are acceptable for a new economic boom. I believe this will take at least 10 years.

Despite the fact that commodities, like platinum, will outperform most asset classes over the next years, I believe that they will still depreciate significantly as compared to gold (and silver). This is basically what happened during the 70s and is also what happened during the great depression. I have written about  the similarities of the great depression, the 70s and today.

Below is a chart that shows the cyclical downturn(s) of industrial production in the US over the last 50 years.


You will notice that during the two parts (70 to 75 and then 76 to 80) of the gold bull market, industrial production turned  down significantly. Also, note that the downturn occurred towards the end of those gold rallies and, in the case of the second one, continued until after the end of the gold rally.

Back to the long-term gold/platinum ratio chart

On the chart, you will see a 25-year down-trend resistance line, which was broken in 2008. In textbook fashion, the ratio has moved up quickly since then, whereafter it has returned to test the breakout area. A quick move to 1 is expected very soon, and it would go a long way in confirming that the trend in this ratio is unfolding very much like the one of the 70s and is likely to continue throughout this decade. 

I believe that the ratio will reach the 1.4 level faster than many would believe (if they believe at all) and that it will go on to reach levels unimaginable for many, because they are unable to comprehend the long-term developments. I just wonder whether banks will revert back to gold credit cards as their premier card. Actually, I wonder if banks will still be around.

Warm regards and God bless–


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Please visit my blog and website for more of my work, as well as my free and premium service.


You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

South African Gold Miners, Dollar/Rand Rate and the HUI by Hubert Moolman

US dollar/SA exchange rate

The Dollar/Rand exchange rate is a very important rate for South African gold miners, as well as an important proxy for gold miners in general. Together with some other indicators, this ratio can tell us when gold miners are about to increase in real terms—that is, as compared to all other asset classes (including gold itself). When this happens, you really want to be in gold miners.

I can tell you that by all indication, especially my unique fractal analysis, we are entering such a time. This article is an attempt to illustrate why I think we are entering the time where gold (and silver) miners will be the best performing asset class over the next many years.

Below is a 5-year US dollar/SA rand chart.


On the chart, I have highlighted two fractals (pattern 1 and 2). The period over which each of these patterns formed can also be viewed as a cycle. If my comparison of the two fractals is correct, then we are now at the beginning of a new cycle.

To show the similarity of the two patterns, I have marked similar points (1 to 4) on both patterns. We are now just about after point 4, and this would represent the bottom (5 November 2010). From here I expect the rate to rise, thus giving JSE gold miners leverage on the gold that they are selling.

Remember that a significant part of JSE gold miner’s cost is in Rand or non-USD currency, whereas they get Dollars for the gold that they sell. Of course, this is not the only condition needed for gold miners to prosper.  Margin (revenue less cost) is king in any business and no different for gold miners. Their margins are most favourable when the gold price is rising in real terms.

The gold price is currently rising in real terms and should continue to do so for at least the next 5 months. In fact, I believe this increase in real terms will accelerate over the next 5 months due to the deflationary conditions that I expect from now to about April next year.

Expected timing and target for the US dollar/SA rand exchange rate

Below are two charts which zoom into the last part of the two fractals presented on the first chart of this article. (The full analysis continues for subscribers and pay per article clients only.)



JSE Gold Index

Below is a chart of the JSE Gold index that I did awhile back. I have highlighted two possible matching fractals. The commentary on the chart is self-explanatory. Note that, since then, the index has broken upward out of the flag.

This chart and fractal analysis is consistent with my expectation for gold miners. It also illustrates why I think the rallies in gold miners will be explosive. The expected timing and price targets will be made available to my premium subscribers and pay per article clients.


Below, I have done the same analysis for Anglogold (in S. African rand). The note on the chart is also self-explanatory. The reason I have used Anglogold is to illustrate a fractal on the HUI, which you will see on the last chart. Again, the pennant/flag has broken out since then.


 On the last chart, I have the HUI compared to Anglogold (in US dollars). Again, I have highlighted two possible fractals and marked points 5, 6 and 7 on both. For Anglogold, these points also correlate with points 5, 6 and 7 on the Anglogold (in S. African rand) chart. The HUI has of course also broken out of the line drawn since then.

This analysis presents a similar view as to what should be expected for gold miners, as presented under the JSE Gold and US dollar/South African rand analysis. The HUI should increase significantly in value over the next many years. The expected timing and price targets for the HUI will be made available to my subscribers and pay per article clients.


Warm regards and God bless


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Please visit my blog and website for more of my work and premium service. http://hgmandassociates.com/

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Silver Update 27 October 2010 Preview

Silver Update 27 October 2010

By Hubert Moolman

Silver is in a similar position as to what gold was in around this time last year. See the chart below for an illustration of this similarity.


I have highlighted the perceived similar spots, from 1 to 3. Note that silver is the top chart. From 1, where both silver and gold made a significant top in 2008, it has taken silver about a year longer than gold to pass that top, or the red line drawn from the top. Silver has to make up for that year, and we will see it in price action, as we have already seen in the last 2 months. This is very much consistent with the behaviour of silver as compared with gold, as in the late 70s & early 80s when silver made most of its gains towards the end of the bull market.

It is likely that the silver price is chasing the blue line, in a similar manner to what gold did last year.

To continue reading, please contact me for details of the pay per article service.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert Moolman

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Protected: Silver Update 27 October 2010

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Protected: Gold Update 25 October 2010

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Dollar Gold, Rand Gold, DOW, JSE Gold and HUI – by Hubert Moolman

Let’s start with a big picture view. Below is a long term Dow/gold ratio chart. As you can see on the chart, it has just been one-way traffic the last ten years, with the ratio moving down from almost 45 to about 8.16. It seems that the next temporary stop might be between the 4 and 6 level. I have previously written how the 10 Dow/gold ratio level has been a pivot point back all the way to 1930.

This number has acted like a “golden ratio” in that things really start to happen before or after the Dow/gold ratio breaches 10, in either direction. In the past it was the level from where either the gold price or the Dow increased spectacularly while the other went nowhere to down.

 Chart generated on the stockcharts.com website

As you can see on the chart, in 2009 the ratio went through the 10 level (going down), touching 7, from where it went back to test the 10 level. Since April 2010, it has resumed the downward move and appears ready to accelerate its fall.

So, in my opinion conditions will continue to favour gold, relative to the Dow.

What will be the effect of conditions on gold, going forward?

Higher—much higher—prices. That will be the major effect on the gold price, going forward. From a shorter term perspective, things are much like they were in 2007. This can be seen from the following chart:

 chart generated on the fxstreet.com website

More information and analysis of this chart is available to subscribers to my premium service.

From a longer term perspective (see my Long Term Gold Fractal Analysis), conditions are much more like the 70s, when gold was continuously making all time highs. The similarities to the 70s are likely to continue throughout this decade, with conditions propelling gold higher on a parabolic path, whereas the world economy and the Dow in particular will be going nowhere. The world’s great debt bubble will continue deflating, and until it has appropriately deflated there can be no recovery. Along with gold and silver, much higher prices should eventually be expected for commodities, whereas paper and all things inflated by the great debt bubble of the last century should lose significant value relative to gold, silver and commodities.

What will be the effect of conditions on the Dow, going forward?

As I have said, I expect the world economy to go nowhere over the next decade. It can only recover when we are at the end of this huge debt crisis, which could take another 10 years or more. A peak in the gold price will likely be a good signal that the end of the world debt crisis is only a few years away. I believe we are still far from a peak in the gold price, however, which means we’re even further from having conditions suitable for a growing world economy and a Dow worth investing in.

I wrote previously: “Debt levels have become a huge burden and will strangle the world economy for at least the next 10 years. The debt will have to be settled eventually, either voluntarily (unlikely) or by force (death of all fiat denominated debt).  All future production will be severely reduced by the debt obligation and the effects will be a world economy in chaos and possibly with life threatening phenomena like starvation being the order of the day.

That is just how it works when you have huge debt – you will have less of your future income/production available due to the debt obligation that has to be met every month.”

From a shorter term perspective, the 11000 level could prove to be a barrier to the Dow, and it could fall to the 9000 level or below.

The Rand Gold Price

Below is a chart of the South African rand gold price.

 chart generated on the goldprice.org website

I have indicated a possible symmetrical triangle. In textbook fashion, the price broke out of the triangle, advanced for a few weeks, and has returned to a support at nearly the same level where it broke out. It is now at a point where it could spike significantly higher. This is a great signal for the SA gold miners, as well as possible evidence that the HUI breakout will have “legs”. For more analysis on JSE gold miners and the HUI index, please visit my website (premium service).


I believe gold and silver are the assets to own throughout the next several years. They might be the most functional assets with which to protect one’s wealth during the coming storm. I encourage you to look after yourself and your loved ones, and please obtain the most functional assets to protect your wealth.

Warm regards and God bless


“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Please visit my blog (http://blogs.fin24.com/hubertmooolman) for older but informative articles.

My premium service is $10 per article.It covers various topics like the dollar gold price, silver price, rand gold price, HUI, JSE gold miners and Dow individually Please email me for more information.

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Rand and Rand Gold Price Update

The Rand gold price appears to be at, or very close to a major buy point. In a previous article, I highlighted a possible symmetrical triangle, which then, was an indication of much higher prices in the near and more distant future. This pattern is now setting up nicely, and performing all the technical confirmations that are normally associated with this pattern.

If you look on the chart above, you will see that price broke out of the triangle at about R 8500, and has now returned to test that breakout at R 8500. It is quite normal for price to test the breakout level (in this case R8500) or pullback to the apex of the triangle. What does this mean? It means that gold is either at an ideal buy point, or that the buy point is slightly lower (at the apex of the triangle).

For the target price of this pattern, see my previous article called: “South Africa Beware of the Coming Storm” (follow the link above).

Is this analysis consistent with the outlook for the South African rand and the US dollar gold price?

Below, is a 5 year chart of the US dollar/SA rand exchange rate.

(chart generated on fxstreet.com)

I have drawn a support line, and you will notice that price (dollar/gold exchange rate) is currently at support. This could possibly be an indication that price might bounce very soon. I have also indicated three points, marked with an A. These points are similar, from a fractal perspective. The first 2 points were key or pivot points, from where the price bounced materially. If I am correct, and the third point is similar to the first 2 points, then price should bounce from here.

It is important to note that the points are similar, not identical. Therefore, though there may be a bounce coming, it will not necessarily be identical to the previous two bounces.

A bounce in the price (depending on magnitude) might hold bad implications for the general stock market. Are we on the cusp of another round of risk-aversion?

For more on my proprietary fractal analysis, visit: http://hgmandassociates.com/.

I have also done an analysis of the US dollar gold price, which you will find here.


If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach more people.

Visit  http://hgmandassociates.com/ for more of my current work.

Visit my blog: http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman

May God bless you.

Hubert Moolman

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Gold Update 28 July 2010

The month of July has been quite an uncomfortable month in the gold market. The gold price has dropped a whopping $80 since 30 June. Despite this big drop, the formidable uptrend in the gold price is still well intact. Therefore, I believe there is no need to panic.

Before I look at where I think we are, in terms of the gold price, let me first look at some of the expectations I had:

“I am so confident of my gold and silver analysis that I offer to refund your money should gold not hit $ 1300 dollars by 31 July 2010 or Silver $21.50 also by 31 July 2010.”

As you know, this prediction failed, since gold only hit $1265 and silver $19.82. For more on why I think that my expectation failed, see below. Although I am disappointed, I think the failure to reach the expected target, as well as the recent drop in gold, provides more insight as to how fractals work as well as possibly confirming where we are in this gold bull market.

Where are we?

As I have said before (in my Fractal Report), the gold chart tends to form a particular shape, and then tends to repeat that particular shape (accurate to a reasonable degree) on a larger scale. This is exactly what the definition of fractals suggests when it mentions the term “self-similarity.” Keep this in mind, as this is part of the reason why I think we did not exactly have the price action that I expected.

The difference between a smaller and a bigger fractal is often that different parts of the shapes are accentuated, as well as the fact that the bigger fractal has more complexity. This, I assume, would be the same when trees or broccoli are formed. The ultimate shape of the tree or broccoli determines where matter is added (more or less of) and what type of matter is formed at various phases as it is growing.

Look at the two fractals below, and see if you can understand what I am talking about.

(all charts generated on fxstreet.com)

What you see on the chart above are two fractals indicated by 1. They are similar, but different parts are accentuated, as indicated by an example.

This creates the possibility that all parts within a fractal might not have the same relative size to the similar part in the other similar fractal. This can make it tricky to judge relative sizes between two patterns, as well as when a pattern is fully completed relative to the first formed pattern (remember this as well).

It is important to understand that the overall fractal (the bigger picture) determines what shape is accentuated or where more complexity is required. Therefore, the big picture or overall fractal is the basis to understand how the various fractals fit together and where the chart is likely to go.

All this, and more, creates a continuous similarity in various parts of the chart. This can create some confusion, though, when analysing the chart or fractal, and the confusion can be overcome only by looking constantly for confirmations, as well as by observing the context within which the different fractals exist. Again, the big picture should never be forgotten.

Why am I telling you all this? Hopefully you will know by following the charts and explanations below. All this is done to give you a sense of where I think the gold price will go next.

On the chart above, I have indicated how I think the two fractals are similar. Above, I explained (to a degree) how the chart is able to create a continuous similarity, and this you will understand when you look at the next chart, which indicates another way the two patterns could be similar. This possibility is in part created by the fact that various parts of a given pattern are not the same in relative size when two patterns of similar charts are compared.

On the chart above, this phenomenon is illustrated. You will see, for example, that the distance between points 2 and 3 on the two patterns is out of sync when compared to the scope and distance of points 1 to 2. This comes back to the fact that different parts have been accentuated (see first chart).

The two blue rectangles bring me to the bulk of the reason why the price action was not as expected. If you refer to my previous gold updates, you will see that I indicated that the low (24 March 2010, just after point 8 of the second pattern) was similar to point 10 of the first pattern. I based my opinion on the visual similarity, as well as on the relative size of the patterns (i.e. the relative time it takes to complete the patterns). Now that the price action was not exactly as expected, as well as the fact that the price action since 24 March to date (pattern in second blue triangle) is almost an exact repeat of the pattern in the first blue triangle, I have come to the conclusion that the patterns are now similar, as indicated by the points in the chart. Therefore, I think that point 10, on the second pattern, is in the process of being formed. The visual similarity, between the two patterns is still very much intact, and this actually illustrates the concept that I call fluid, or continuous, similarity.

So, what do I expect going forward? I expect gold to rally very soon, in a spectacular fashion, as it did from the middle of August 2007 to the beginning of November 2007. It needs to find the bottom, which could already be in, at or near $1157 (or perhaps slightly lower). From a timing point of view, we are either there or thereabouts.

It is risky to make bold predictions, given that the market is so volatile, and given that my previous prediction was off. However, I aim to call things as I see them, as well as share the basis for my views. The objective of these updates and articles is to share my view; therefore, I will continue to express my expectation in no uncertain terms as far as possible.

The chart below is just to illustrate another way of viewing the similarities of the two patterns and thus illustrate the concept of fluid similarity. There are even more ways to illustrate the similarities between the two patterns, but not all of them are herein discussed.

It is important to note that both the above chart, as well as the chart below, indicate that gold should rise sharply—and soon.


If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach people who would not normally read such informative sites as this one.

Visit  http://hgmandassociates.com/ for more of my current work.

Visit my blog: http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman

May God bless you.

Hubert Moolman

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Gold’s Rise And The Dow’s Fate by Hubert Moolman

24 June 2010

In a previous article called “Gold, Dow And The South African Rand” (dated 24 May 2010), I stated: “we will probably have more of these scary drops in the gold price as we continue into this volatile phase of the gold bull market. The good news for gold bugs is that we will also have some huge up days, and the general trend will be very much up.”  If you look at the gold chart, you will notice that despite the volatility in the gold price since then, the trend is definitely up. When these scary drops happen, many people start panicking and eventually get “shaken off” this great bull market.

It is important to keep the big picture in mind. When one only focuses on the day to day movements of the gold price, one will be one of those who will lose out. At this point, where gold is going parabolic, you could sell all, and a week later the gold price could be $150 higher (or even more). At this stage of the gold bull, a sharp drop in price is an ideal opportunity to add to long-term positions; it is not a time to panic and sell one’s core holdings. Believe me, while gold is going higher in this bull market, there will be many sharp (daily or weekly) drops.

What is the big picture for gold?

The chart above is a long-term gold chart (thanks to goldprice.org). This chart is the big picture for gold, as far as I am concerned. If you look at the chart, like I do, then it should tell you that the gold price is going to explode upwards very soon. It should also tell you why looking at the big picture is so important, and why focussing on gold’s day to day movement might cost you a fortune. For more information about this gold chart and its analysis, you can purchase my Long Term Gold Fractal Analysis Report (email me for details).

What is the short-term gold picture?

I have marked the two patterns that I feel are similar. I have marked the patterns by highlighting 5 points on each. If the second pattern resolves in a similar manner to the first, then the gold price should hit point 5 on the upper resistance (trend) line indicated on the chart. For these fractals (patterns) to really be similar, there should be a measurable relationship between the two patterns, measurable in terms of time as well as price movement. So, for the second pattern to resolve like the first and still be a valid fractal of the first, it has a certain amount of time to do it, and a certain price movement to cover.

I can tell you that time has been moving, whereas price has not been moving as fast as should be expected (based on the time movement). What does this mean? If these two patterns are actually fractals, then price has to catch up with time, and that should mean strong rallies (shorter time periods) could be coming up. As I am writing this, gold is up $20 the last couple of hours. It is going to be interesting.

Is the big picture in gold, as shown above, consistent with what is going on in the world economy today and with what is expected going forward? Consider the following:

  • Debt levels world-wide are at historically high levels
  • These debts are holding back the world’s economy, and will continue to do so for a significant number of years. (see here for more on this)
  • These debt levels are probably going to bring down the current world monetary system.
  • All fiat currencies are depreciating, as measured against gold, and this will increase as more countries struggle to meet their debt obligations
  • Tangible assets like gold and silver are under-valued as compared to intangible assets like equities and bonds. This is illustrated by the Dow/gold ratio. (see here for more on this)

When one takes into account the points above, then it is hard not to agree that the big picture in gold, illustrated above, is probably accurate.

If the world’s debt levels are at all-time high levels and are likely to hold back the world’s economy, then this should affect the economics of listed companies and the real values of companies listed on the great stock exchanges of the world.

This does not bode well for Dow and other listed stocks. They will very likely lose real value (as measured in terms of gold, silver and other commodities) over the next couple of years and beyond.

Nominal value (the value as listed on the exchanges in terms of fiat currency), is an altogether different matter. This matter is often referred to under the inflation vs. deflation debate. It makes things easier when one distinguishes between nominal and real values, when trying to understand this inflation/deflation debate, or where the stock markets are going over the next couple of years. One could still have higher nominal values for general stocks, notwithstanding bad economic conditions. Will we have higher or lower nominal values for general stocks over the next couple of years and beyond?

For more on this and gold commentary, you can subscribe to my free newsletter at http://hgmandassociates.com.

There are also some great signals that I like to use when forecasting where the stock market is likely to go in the future. One such signal or proxy is the value of the South African rand compared to other currencies. The South African rand has been a fairly reliable measure or proxy for risk aversion. When the general markets take a hit and everyone is running for safety, the Rand usually gets hit hard.

Below are two South African rand charts that I have been tracking. I have done some proprietary fractal analysis, which I would like to share with you.

The first is a 5 year US dollar/SA rand chart (generated on fxstreet.com). In a previous article, I have used this chart and more to show why I think the Dow has topped for now. On this chart, I have indicated two black lines as a possible trading range. I have also indicated two possible fractals. I have marked 4 points on each fractal pattern to indicate how they are similar. If the second pattern resolves like the first pattern, then price should break out of that top line of the trading range and make its way towards the 9 price level. This will likely mean that the Dow will visit the 9000 level. This appears to be consistent with fractal analysis I have done on the Dow.

The second is a 5 year Canadian dollar/SA rand (generated on fxstreet.com). Again, I have applied my proprietary fractal analysis to his chart. I really like this chart, since it clearly illustrates (in textbook fashion) how effective fractal analysis can be. This chart gives a clear signal when fractal analysis is applied. It is probably due to the fact that both South Africa and Canada are resource based economies (just a guess).

Again, I have indicated two possible fractals. I have marked 6 points on each fractal to indicate how they are similar. If the second pattern resolves like the first pattern, then price should break out of that top black line, and make its way towards the 8.5 price level. This will likely mean that the Dow will break down. The similarity of the sections indicated by the circles gives me added confidence that the second pattern will resolve like the first.

My other recent articles you will find at  http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman , since I only recently started posting here.


If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach people that would not normally read informative sites such as this one. You can subscribe to my newsletter at http://hgmandassociates.com/. My newsletter is free and I send it out whenever I feel I have relevant information to share. I do gratefully accept donations, though, so that I can continue to research and write. Send me an email for details. 

May God bless you.

Hubert Moolman

You can email any comments to hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za