Silver Price Forecast 2014: Monetary Collapse and Silver’s Not So Orderly Rise

Silver Price Forecast 2014: Monetary Collapse and Silver’s Not So Orderly Rise

We are about to see the end of our current international monetary system. Based on much of the evidence that I have written about previously, this appears to be a certainty. The systematic build-up of this current monetary order went together with the gradual phasing out of silver from the monetary order.

This system, by its very nature, has been diverting value away from silver. To understand this, just imagine that silver was actually used as currency (like the paper Dollar is currently used); we would then have much less silver available for sale in the current silver market. Based on the demand and supply economic model, this would then mean that the silver price would rise significantly.

The fact that silver is not held by central banks in significant quantities(or not held at all), puts it at a further disadvantage as compared with gold, in the current monetary regime. This is one of the reasons why silver is often mistakenly ignored as real money.

The rise of silver and the collapse of the monetary system is inescapably linked. Therefore, if the collapse of the monetary system is not orderly, then the rise of silver’s value will not likely be orderly. Collapse by definition suggests: to break or fall suddenly. This would suggest that when the time comes, silver will explode higher suddenly; for example, it could be possible that it rises $10, $20, $100 a day, until you can suddenly not buy it with fiat money. Interestingly, that actually means that silver and gold will reach the same price in fiat currency.

So, if you are buying physical silver to hedge against the collapse of the monetary system, you are not buying it, and looking for the price to rise to about $30 at the end of this year. No, you are expecting a sudden explosion of price, you just do not know exactly when. The approach of the silver “stackers” is therefore, the best approach, given that a monetary collapse is inevitable.

Due to the fractal nature of markets, I believe that what happened to silver during the 70’s was a prelude to this coming “end of the monetary system rally”. Silver went from $8.70 in August 1979 to $50 in January 1980. That was a phenomenal feat. Few goods (if any at all) have seen such a big increase in such a short time.

Here, I will be using the Gold/Silver ratio to illustrate how the 70s price movements for silver (and gold) is a miniature version of price movements from 1980 to 2014. Below, is a 100-year Gold/Silver ratio chart:

silver forecast with gold silver ratio

analysis of sold silver ratio chart

On the chart, I have marked two patterns with points 1 to 5. It appears to be a relevant comparison, since both patterns start from a major peak in silver, 1968 and 1980, respectively. Both patterns started at the bottom of the 100-year range of this ratio, in fact, at a major bottom (1968 & 1980).

The two patterns appear very similar – similar, but not identical. If the similarity continues, then the current pattern may complete at a point much lower than a ratio of 15. This could mean significantly higher silver prices just like it did in 1979/1980.

There are more indicators that support the likelihood of a sudden and massive spike in silver due to collapse of the monetary system.

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report.

Hubert

And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Price Forecast 2014: Significant Silver Rallies Usually Follow Major Dow Peaks

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Price Analysis, Silver Price Out Look and Silver Price Prediction 2014

Significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least.

It is no coincidence that significant silver rallies follow after significant Dow rallies end. It is simply a natural reaction to what caused the stock market rally as well as the effects of that rally. So, if it happened before, it will certainly occur again.

These stock market rallies are driven by the expansion of the money supply, causing a big increase in value of paper assets (including stocks) relative to real assets. When the increase in credit or the money supply has run its course, and is unable to drive paper price higher; value then flees from paper assets to safe assets such as physical gold and silver, causing massive price increases.

Below is a 100-year inflation-adjusted silver and gold chart (generated at macrotrends.net):

Silver and Dow rallies

Silver and Dow long term comparison

On the chart, I have indicated where the Dow/Gold ratio peaked, in 1929, 1966 and 1999. Significant silver (and gold) rallies eventually followed after all of those peaks. The rally after the 1929 Dow peak, ran until 1934. It is important to know that the Dow also peaked when the Dow/Gold ratio peaked in 1929.

The silver rally after the 1966 Dow peak, ran until 1980. In this case, the Dow’s major peak (in 1973) only came 7 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak. Note that a big rally actually came right after the major Dow peak of 1973.

After the 1999 Dow peak, we certainly had a silver rally, which started in 2001. To date, the Dow has made a major peak only 14 years after the Dow/Gold ratio peak of 1999. The peak I am referring to, is the one of December 2013. Already we can see that there is some kind of progression as to how long Dow peaks occur after the Dow/Gold ratio peaked – first at the same time, then 7 years after and now already 14 years after.

Based on the past price action, we could have a massive silver rally when the Dow has peaked, just like it did in 1973. The question as to whether the Dow actually peaked in December 2013; therefore, becomes very important. The current similarity of the Dow and gold is a topic I am continuously dealing with in my premium service, and appears to agree with the above scenario.

If the Dow has not yet peaked, it does not mean that we will not have a silver rally. All it means is that we will have to wait a little longer. So, as I have said many times before, it is the Dow that holds the key to the future of gold and silver, at his moment.

For more on this topic, and similar analysis you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report .

Hubert

And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved

Jason Hommel Silver, Jim Sinclair Silver, Mike Maloney Silver , King News Silver, David Morgan Silver  silver price

Silver Price Forecast: The Greatest Silver Chart Of All-Time

Silver Price Forecast: The Greatest Silver Chart Of All-Time – not my title, but of a reader who asked me to update my long-term silver chart.

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my free silver and gold newsletter or premium service. I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report .

Hubert
hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Premium Update August 2012

Silver Update

By Hubert Moolman

The silver chart has formed a big pennant like that of the gold chart. What this indicates is that the silver price will likely make a massive move soon. Technically, this move can be up or down. Note that this update is from my premium service originally published on 6 August 2012.

Below is a silver chart with the pennant:

silver chart forecast

The technical and fundamental evidence that I have collected, and look at, tells me that the price is likely to go upward out of this pennant formation.

On the chart above, you can see that the price has actually broken out (upward) of the pennant. We have to give it some time before we can say that it is a valid breakout. Also, I have drawn a blue line, which could become another area of resistance.

If we were to consider a move down, then a first target of $15 and one lower at $5 would come into play, based on the patterns. A price of $5 (and even $15) does not make any economic sense, given the amounts of fiat money currently available.

However, there is a real threat of deflation, currently, and the effect of this has to be considered when looking at the future silver price. In my opinion, we do have a perfect setup for a massive deflation which will destroy a lot of debt-based value.

Stock market values have been driven for years by this debt-based value, and will, therefore, be very badly devalued. Many believe that such a fall in stock market values will take down the silver price. I do not agree, and have given many reasons why.

Here, I would just like to point out that the current threat of deflation is due to the massive debt levels, and the inability to service those debt commitments. You can just look at the example of Spain or Greece.

Silver is a real store of value and that is its most significant function. The current crisis will cause a massive rush to that which can store value that will not be destroyed by the debt-collapse. Silver is just about the opposite of debt.

Previously, I wrote about how this debt-based monetary system has created what I call a “mirror-effect”, whereby, silver (and gold) is pushed down in value, to a similar extent as to which paper assets such as general stocks are pushed up in value. This mirror-effect clearly shows up on the long-term charts of gold, silver and the Dow.

Below, is a long–term silver chart (real and nominal) from 1850 to present (generated at minefund.com):

I have drawn a vertical red line, approximately where silver was demonetized (1870s). Notice how the real price of silver collapsed after the red line, from about $30, until it bottomed in 1931 at $4.29. It then traded side-ways (from the big-picture view) for many years, until it spiked from about the early 1970s, making a peak in 1980, where after, it bottomed again in 2001.

Technically, the bottom in 2001 was the completion of what would be a remarkable double bottom reversal, with the first bottom being in 1931. After a double bottom formation, there is often a big rally, and that is exactly what happened next. If this pattern continues to follow the pattern of a valid double bottom, it will reach levels that will exceed the 1980 high by at least one multiple, but probably by many more.

The interesting thing about this possible double bottom is the fact that the two bottoms came 70 years apart. This 70 years period also appears on the long-term Dow chart. Below is a Dow chart (from stockcharts.com) from 1900 to present:

On the chart, I have indicated a 70 year period from when the Dow peaked in 1929, to the peak in 1999. The reason for using the 1999 peak instead of the 2007 peak, is the fact that the 1999 peak represents the real peak, since the Dow/Gold ratio peaked in 1999 (like it did in 1929).

Notice the dates of the peaks and how they fit in with that of the bottoms of the real silver price, as well as the similar 70 year periods between. In my opinion, the occurrence of the 70 year period on both charts, in the context as explained above, provides additional evidence of the link between silver’s demonetization (or suppression) and the massive debt bubble of this century – as explained in part 1 of this article.

While the Dow is inflated to the peak in 1929, silver is suppressed to its low in 1931. And again, the Dow is inflated to its peak in 1999, while silver is suppressed to its bottom in 2001.

So, the peaks and troughs, as presented in the above charts, are the manifestation (in visual form) of the debt-based monetary system causing paper and related assets to rise, while suppressing silver. Another way of looking at it is that the debt-based monetary system is fuelling speculation in paper assets by using energy diverted from precious metals.

Silver (like gold) stands in direct opposition to the current monetary system (they are inescapably linked). The fall (and falling) of this system is the rise of silver as money; therefore, massive increases in what silver can buy in real terms.

Looking at a bearish pattern to find critical levels

Below, is 6-year chart of silver, highlighting bearish fractals:

I have highlighted two fractals by indicating 4 similar points on both. Based on this comparison, we could now be at a very critical area. A break-down below the support (about $26), could mean that the current pattern could follow the 2007/2008 pattern, and take price much lower. This is presented not because I believe that price will break lower than the support, but to show why I think we are at a critical level, and why we should be watchfull.

Pattern Previously Covered

Here, is a follow-up on my previous article about the similar flag-type formations on the silver chart.Below is a graphic which compares the current pattern on silver (from about the beginning of 2011 to present) to a 2007 pattern:

This comparison is still very much valid; only if price goes lower than $26 could it become invalid. In fact, there is a good chance that price has broken out to the upside.

On both charts, I have suggested how the flag patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6 (and alternatively from a to h). Based on this comparison, it appears that the silver price might now have found that point 6 or h (at the end of June), and is about to increase significantly.

We could be at very volatile area due to the possible breakout, since this is often the case after a breakout – so be aware! I am of the opinion that silver should make its move higher between now and the end of this month, if this comparison is to be confirmed.

Follow-up on Gold/Silver Ratio

In my last gold update, I covered the Gold/Silver ratio, and explained why I think the Gold/Silver ratio will soon fall straight down. Below is an updated Gold/Silver ratio chart:

On the chart I have indicated a trading channel in which the ratio has been moving for the last five months. It appears now to have finally broken down, out of the channel. This could be a very strong signal that silver and gold prices are about to rise significantly. Again, here we have to watch for a possible retest of that break-down area, before the ratio falls straight down.

Conclusion:

Silver appears to have broken out of the pennant or flag-type formation, and could now finally be setting-up for a massive rise in price. We should, however, be very watchful, due to the fact that we are at a critical area in price and time. There is a big threat of deflation, but, in my opinion, it is this very deflation (brought about by the collapse of the debt bubble) that could be driving silver prices higher.

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report .

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Price Forecast: Dramatic Turnaround For Silver?

Silver price Forecast: Dramatic Turnaround For Silver?

18 May 2012

Here are a few patterns that might explain the current state of the silver price, as well as, provide the possible way forward.

Below is a 6-year chart of silver (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

silver price forecast

On the chart, I have indicated two similar patterns (marked 1 to 5).This comparison suggests that silver could rise significantly over the next couple of months. This would mean that a dramatic turnaround in the price of silver is coming (it might have started already).

I have also drawn some red lines at the $10, $20, $30, and $50 level. These levels appear to have acted like key levels, where the price of silver has found support or resistance.

The interesting thing about these levels is the fact that they have a Fibonacci relationship. That is a ratio that is similar to the following Fibonacci numbers: 1, 2, 3, and 5. So, if the silver chart continues to follow this Fibonacci pattern, which is often the case, then the $50 level is a very important resistance. Also, if we go past the $50 level, then $80 could be the next significant level, since that will be the next area, if the Fibonacci ratio is to be applied. The $80 area could act as a support or a resistance.

Now, I would like to zoom-in to the last part of both patterns (about point 3 to 5 of both).

Below is a graphic which compares the current pattern on silver (from about the beginning of 2011 to present) to a 2007 pattern:

silver forecast

On both charts, I have suggested how the flag  patterns might be similar, by marking similar points, from 1 to 6 (and alternatively from a to f). Based on this comparison, it appears that the silver price is searching for that point 6 (or point f, which might be in already).

These patterns suggest that the current flag pattern (as previously suggested), is important for the future of the silver price. A breakout at the resistance line of the flag could mean that we will have a significant rally, and an eventual breakout at the $50.

For more silver and gold analysis and guidance, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Report  & Long-term Gold Fractal Report    or subscribe to my Premium Service.

Warm regards,

Hubert Moolman

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

A Massive Spike In The Price of Silver Is Imminent

A Massive Spike In The Price of Silver Is Imminent

Gold and silver are very close to entering the mania phase of this bull market. In order for gold and silver to go into the mania phase, value has to be diverted from somewhere, and that “somewhere” is most likely stocks. Since 2000, there has been a correction in stock values, in real terms; however, nominally, stocks are still significantly high (close to its all-time highs).

I expect that significant value will soon be diverted from the general stock market, to silver and gold, causing prices to rally significantly, until these metals also become overvalued.

This is exactly what happened in 2007/2008. Below is a graphic (charts from barchart.com) that illustrates how this happened in 2007/2008:

The top chart is for the S&P 500 and the bottom is for silver. I have drawn a yellow line, at the point where the S&P 500 peaked. It is only after the peak in the S&P 500 that silver broke out, and eventually rallied significantly (while the S&P 500 was crashing). From a “fractal” point of view, we are currently in a similar position, with stocks getting ready to peak.

Silver Fractal Analysis

Silver has made its way out of the giant flag; however, it fell back again, lower than the upper boundary of the flag, as shown in the following chart:

Previously, I have stated that price will eventually break out of the flag and go on to make much higher highs. Below, is some evidence to support this view:

The top chart is for gold and the bottom one is for silver. Gold and silver made similar patterns before and after reaching their respective 1980 highs. From the charts, you can see there is a similarity in how gold and silver approached their 1980 high. Both made a triangle-type pattern (green lines) just before it reached the 1980 all-time high. When it came out of that triangle pattern, it rallied strongly to the 1980 high, which started the formation of a flag-type pattern (yellow lines).

Gold passed its 1980 all-time high during 2008, while silver is yet to do so. By looking at the pattern of how gold passed its 1980 high, we can predict how silver might do it as well. If silver continues to follow the pattern that gold formed, then we can expect a massive spike towards the $50 and beyond, very soon. Read my previous article for more about this comparison.

For more of this kind of analysis, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report , or subscribe to my premium service .

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved.”

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Market Update

Silver Price Forecast: Silver Market Update

Silver is currently trading at key resistance levels. See below, a six-year silver chart (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

silver long-term chart

On the chart, I have drawn a significant upward sloping resistance line (red line). Silver has now reached that line, trying to breach it and stay above it. It has also reached the top resistance line of a big flag pattern. If the silver price gets through these resistance lines, and stays above them, then it is likely to continue its rise, but likely in a more accelerated manner.

These resistance areas can be very tricky. Price can often react in a violent manner downwards; however, there are no certainties.

What silver will do at these resistance areas is a short-term problem. From a longer point of view, it is clear to me that silver is going much higher. Eventually, it will successfully break out of the big flag and spike upwards past the $50 level.

In a previous article, I have shown how closely silver is following a past pattern on the gold chart. That comparison also suggests that the silver price will eventually successfully breach the resistance lines indicated above. Below, is the chart from that comparison:

silver vs gold

On the charts (silver is the top one and gold is the bottom one, I have marked the two patterns (1 to 5) that are similar on the gold and silver chart. For more details and explanation of the two patterns, please read that full article. If the silver pattern continues to follow the gold pattern, then the silver price would pass the resistance lines indicated in the first chart, and eventually challenge the $50 level.

For more of this kind of analysis, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report ,or subscribe to my premium service .

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Forecast: Silver Premium Update

Silver Forecast: Is Silver Outperforming The Gold Fractal?

Below, is an extract of my Silver Premium Update for 25 January 2012:

Since my last silver articles (here and here), the silver chart has been following the patterns, I have been tracking, quite nicely. Below is an updated version of the gold vs. silver fractal:

I have highlighted the patterns (marked 1 to 10) on gold and silver to illustrate how they are similar. It seems that silver is now just past point 12, and it has broken out at the blue downtrend line. If it follows the gold pattern exactly, it will move along in the channel formed by the two brown lines, just like gold did. If this happens, we could still wait a long time before the $50 level is challenged.

Below, is another comparison between gold and silver to put the above in perspective:

silver vs gold

Here, I am comparing the same patterns, but I am just including a longer timeline before and after. I have marked the two patterns (of the previous chart) with points 1 to 5 (different numbering than before). I have also drawn a blue line where the top of the ascending triangle (as per previous article) was – just to give us perspective.

So, like I said before, if silver is to follow the gold pattern exactly, it would follow the red drawing, which would mean, it could take a very long time before we pass the $50 with some momentum. Based on the comparison of silver, to its 1970s pattern (as per prior article), we could follow the green drawing. This could mean we could pass $50 much sooner.

Currently, I expect it to form something more like the green drawing; however, we need to see some evidence of that over the coming weeks. This means that there should be acceleration in the silver price, as compared to the gold chart. The first thing that needs to happen (I think) is that price needs to break out (and stay out) of the channel (formed by the two brown lines) in the first chart.

This kind of thing did happen before, as you will see from an extract of my October 2010 Premium Update, below:

As per that update, if silver was going to follow gold exactly, it would have taken a long time before it broke out of that upward trending blue line. However, there was acceleration in the silver price, as compared with gold, and it ended up breaching the upward trending blue line, much faster than the gold pattern suggested.

For more of this kind of analysis, see my Long-term Silver Fractal Analysis Report ,or subscribe to my premium service .

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Price Forecast 2012:I Stand By $140 Silver Price In 2012

Silver Price Forecast 2012:

There is a well-established relationship between how silver and gold trade. They often trade similar in the same time period, but also at similar milestones, although those milestones are sometimes reached at different times. This can cause silver or gold to be the leading indicator, depending on the particular milestone.

I have previously used this relationship to predict how silver will trade. Below, is an extract of that update:


Currently, there is another situation in the silver and gold market that provides an opportunity to predict how silver prices might trade over the coming months. I have pointed this out before, in a previous article. Here, I would just like to provide an update, and add a few more thoughts.

This situation or opportunity revolves around the 1980 all-time high for both metals. Gold passed its 1980 all-time high during 2008, while silver is yet to do so. By looking at the pattern of how gold passed its 1980 high, we can predict how silver might do it as well.

Below, is a comparison of silver and gold around their respective 1980 highs:

From the chart, you can see there is similarity in how gold and silver approached their 1980 high. Gold and silver made a triangle-type pattern (marked 1 -3) just before it reached the 1980 all-time high. When it came out of that triangle pattern, it rallied strongly to the 1980 high, which started the formation of a flag-type pattern (marked 3 – 9).

It appears that silver is now past point 9 (29 December 2011), and will now be eyeing that $50 level.

Market conditions often cause silver to fall behind gold, for quite some time, where after, silver normally catches-up in a big way. The fact that silver is still caught-up in a trading range lower than its 1980 high, at least four years longer than gold already, provides a classic opportunity for silver to follow that “catching-up pattern” and zoom to multiples of its 1980 high.

With gold having passed $1700 (twice the 1980 high of $850) already, given the above analysis, it stands to reason that $100 (twice the 1980 high of $50) silver is virtually guaranteed.

There are many indicators suggesting that we are close to a point where silver might catch –up with gold, relative to its 1980 high, in a big way. My recent analysis of the gold/silver ratio also seems to suggest this. So, as things stand, I expect silver to outperform gold for most of this year, and I stand by my target of at least $140 silver by the end of 2012.

For more unique analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my free newsletter or premium service. I have also recently completed a fractal analysis report for gold and silver.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Silver Price Analysis: Silver’s 2011 Big Move – Was It The End Or The Beginning?

Silver Price Analysis: Silver Likely To Make Explosive Move

The price of a good often behaves in a similar manner at or around the same kind of milestone. An example of such a milestone could be a significant top. Price often forms a similar type of pattern at different significant tops – different in terms of time of occurrence. This is a reflection of how market participants themselves often behave in a similar manner when faced with the same kind of situation. This of course makes perfect sense, since it is normal, for example, to rest after you have been extremely busy for a while. For most people, this is true whether it was yesterday, or in 20 years.

In the current silver market, there are some similarities as compared with the 1970s. There are also things that are much different today, in the economic landscape, compared with that of the 1970s. One of the significant things that is different now is the fact that debt levels, relative to GDP, are extremely high compared with the seventies.

In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why we are likely to have a massive Depression this time around.

Here, I would like to illustrate how the silver price behaves in a similar manner, today, compared with the 1970s. Below is a graphic that compares the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com):

I chose these timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around these periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.

Note how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.

Note that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line. Note that, currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level.

The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).

The flag pattern formed currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.

The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.

The above comparison is also supported by a comparison I did for gold and silver, in a previous article.

Find me also at: picturegoldandsilver – gold and silver analysis contained in one image/picture

Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

The top chart is for gold and the bottom is for silver. I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.

The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months). The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles).

Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.

Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.

The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).

The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.

Below, is a video that illustrates the principle discussed here:

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my free newsletter or premium service. I have also recently completed a fractal analysis report for gold and silver – more detail on my website.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert

Find me also at: picturegoldandsilver – gold and silver analysis contained in one image/picture

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

Silver Analysis: Why Silver For A Monetary Collapse? Part 2

Silver Analysis: Silver Forecast

In part 1, I stated:

We are at the edge of a major economic crisis. Our monetary system is the underlying cause of this major crisis. The massive debt bubble created by our monetary system is about to burst. The demonetization of gold and silver, has over the years diverted value from these metals, to all paper assets (such as bonds) linked to the debt-based monetary system.

The process of the devaluation of gold and silver, started by the demonetization of gold and silver, is about to reverse at a greater speed than ever before. This is similar to what happened during the late 70s, when the gold and silver price increased significantly. However, what happened in the 70’s was just a prelude to this coming rally. The 70’s was the end of a cycle, this is likely the end of a major cycle; an end of an era of the debt-based monetary system (dishonest money).

What this debt-based monetary system has done, is to create what I call a “mirror-effect”, whereby, silver (and gold) is pushed down in value, to a similar extent as to which paper assets such as general stocks are pushed up in value. This mirror-effect clearly shows up on the long-term charts of gold, silver and the Dow.

Here (in part 2), I would like to show how this “mirror effect” of silver versus the assets linked to the debt-based monetary system (general stocks in this case), shows up on the long-term charts. This “mirror effect”, also reveals an interesting cycle, which provides more evidence to support my view, of the impending judgment of this system (monetary system), in terms of standards according to the Holy Scripture.

recommended: similarities between current crisis and great depression

Below, is a long–term silver chart (real and nominal) from 1850 to present (generated at minefund.com):

MineFund’s real precious metals prices are deflated by U.S. consumer price inflation (Consumer Price Index-All Urban Consumers, not seasonally adjusted, January 2011 = 100).

I have drawn a vertical red line, approximately where silver was demonetized (1870s). Notice how the real price of silver collapsed after the red line, from about $30, until it bottomed in 1931 at $4.29. It then traded side-ways (from the big-picture view) for many years, until it spiked from about the early 1970s, making a peak in 1980, where after, it bottomed again in 2001.

Technically, the bottom in 2001 was the completion of what would be a remarkable double bottom reversal, with the first bottom being in 1931. After a double bottom formation, there is often a big rally, and that is exactly what happened next. If this pattern continues to follow the pattern of a valid double bottom, it will reach levels that will exceed the 1980 high by at least one multiple, but probably by many more.

However, the purpose of this article is not to deal with targets. The interesting thing about this possible double bottom is the fact that the two bottoms came 70 years apart. This 70 years period also appears on the long-term Dow chart. Below is a Dow chart (from stockcharts.com) from 1900 to present:

On the chart, I have indicated a 70 year period from when the Dow peaked in 1929, to the peak in 1999. The reason for using the 1999 peak instead of the 2007 peak, is the fact that the 1999 peak represents the real peak, since the Dow/Gold peaked in 1999 (like it did in 1929).

Notice the dates of the peaks and how they fit in with that of the bottoms of the real silver price, as well as the similar 70 year periods between. In my opinion, the occurrence of the 70 year period on both charts, in the context as explained above, provides additional evidence of the link between silver’s demonetization (or suppression) and the massive debt bubble of this century – as explained in part 1 of this article.

While the Dow is inflated to the peak in 1929, silver is suppressed to its low in 1931. And again, the Dow is inflated to its peak in 1999, while silver is suppressed to its bottom in 2001.

So, the peaks and troughs, as presented in the above charts, are the manifestation (in visual form) of the debt-based monetary system causing paper and related assets to rise, while suppressing silver. Another way of looking at it is that the debt-based monetary system is fuelling speculation in paper assets by using energy diverted from precious metals. THIS IS THE REAL MANIPULATION OF GOLD AND SILVER – it is in the open.

Silver (like gold) stands in direct opposition to the current monetary system (they are inescapably linked). The fall (and falling) of this system is the rise of silver as money; therefore, massive increases in what silver can buy in real terms. 

Update on the silver pattern presented in my previous article

In my previous article on silver, I presented the following graphic that compares the silver chart from 2007 to today, to the gold chart from 2008 to 2010 (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

It seems that silver has now made that low at point 12 (note, there is still a possibility of a retest). Price is now looking to break out of the down-trend since September (point 7). If silver continues to follow gold’s pattern above, we could see new all-time highs over the coming months.

For more of this kind of analysis on silver and gold, you are welcome to subscribe to my free silver and gold newsletter or premium service. I have also recently completed a fractal analysis report for gold and silver – more detail on my website.

Warm regards and God bless,

Hubert

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/

hubert@hgmandassociates.co.za

“And it shall come to pass, that whosoever shall call on the name of the Lord shall be saved”

Silver Price Forecast 2012 And Beyond: Silver Bull Market vs Dow Bull Market

Silver Price Forecast Video:  Comparing the Dow’s bull market of the 80s and 90s to the current silver bull market. Similarities predict that silver prices should rise significantly over the coming years:

 

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